Andrew Shearer	Rory Medcalf	Dr Malcolm Cook	Raoul Heinrichs

The Lowy Institute's Macarthur Foundation Asia Security Project aims to explore the limits of security cooperation in Asia and promote measures to prevent the region's growing strategic rivalries from deepening and escalating into war.

Supported by a generous grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Lowy Institute will work alongside 26 other leading regional institutions, helping to shape a practical agenda for security cooperation.

Strategic Snapshot Series America's grand strategy in Asia: what would Mahan do? In the Lowy Institute’s latest Asia security ‘Strategic Snapshot’, distinguished American Asia scholar and former senior White House official Dr Michael J. Green examines Asia’s changing power dynamics and asks what grand strategy 19th century geo-strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan, the father of US sea-power, would advocate for the United States if he were alive today. Responding to Power and Choice, the Lowy Institute’s flagship report on alternative Asian security futures, Dr Green makes a powerful case for a modern US Asia strategy drawing on Mahan’s insights and based on a strong forward maritime presence, strengthened cooperation with allies, a reaffirmed American commitment to free trade, and promotion of the values the United States shares with its key Asian partners. Download item (1.1MB)

China's competing international identities: the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Professor David Shambaugh presentation As China emerges fully on the global stage, its impact is being felt in various dimensions -diplomatic, commercial, cultural, energy and environment, military-strategic, global governance, and other domains. Yet the international community remains very... More   India-China tensions India must master the great game India needs to stay cool in the face of diplomatic and security provocations by China, argues International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf in this opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal. Through development, deterrence and diplomacy New Delhi can be... More

U.S. engagement with a rising Asia Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Dr Robert Sutter presentation Based on research including consultations with 180 officials in ten Asia-Pacific countries over the past six years, this careful and balanced assessment of the strengths and limitations of Asia’s rise, notably the rise of China, along with the strengths and weaknesses of the United States and its ongoing leadership position in the region, demonstrates that neither China nor any other power or coalition of powers has either the ability nor the will to challenge US leadership in the Asia-Pacific. Dr Sutter's presentation can be heard here: U.S. engagement with a rising Asia - MP3 (20MB) More

Strategic Snapshots series Cheonan choices The Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project is releasing a new publication series, ‘Strategic Snapshots’. The first Snapshot, Cheonan Choices, by Andrew Shearer and Malcolm Cook, highlights the strategic implications of North Korea’s sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, including strengthened security ties between South Korea, Japan and the United States, and concerns about China’s limited response to its ally’s reckless and provocative actions. It advocates a range of policy responses, including: enhanced Australia-South Korea intelligence sharing and annual strategic discussions between Australian and South Korean foreign and defence ministers; bringing Japan and Australia into future anti-submarine exercises involving South Korea and the United States and establishing four-party security discussions; and an Australia-South Korea led exercise in support of the international Proliferation Security Initiative. Download item (1.5MB)

New Lowy Institute Analysis Sweet and sour: Australian public attitudes towards China Foreign policy has hardly featured in the 2010 election campaign. That's a shame. Australia faces an increasingly uncertain international environment. One of the most pressing challenges facing the next government will be putting in place a durable policy framework to guide Australia's increasingly complex relationship with a rising China. In this paper Andrew Shearer analyses changing public attitudes to China and the implications for policy. Part 2 of the video is available by clicking here. Download item (918KB)

Lowy Institute-MacArthur Foundation collaboration Power and choice: Asian security futures Recent events in the seas off South Korea and Japan emphasise the fragility of Asia’s security order and the strains the region’s changing power distribution are placing on it. A new major Lowy Institute Asia Security Project report, 'Power and Choice: Asian Security Futures', analyses the likely security futures for Asia and Australia and recommends steps countries should take to ensure growing regional competition does not lead to conflict. This report was made possible by the generous support for the Project by the MacArthur Foundation. A copy of the report, launched by Dennis Richardson, AO, the Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade on 1 June, can be downloaded here. Download item (6.5MB)

Publication launch Asian security futures report On Tuesday 1 June Mr Dennis Richardson AO, Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, launched a major new Lowy Institute report - Power and Choice: Asian security futures - at the National Portrait Gallery in Canberra. Jointly written by the Lowy Institute's MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project team, the report explores a number of future scenarios that could arise from Asia's emerging political and strategic dynamics. The publication can be downloaded at: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=1306 Pictured: Mr Dennis Richardson AO More

The Shangri-La Dialogue Asia Security Summit The 9th IISS Asia Security Summit, The Shangri-La Dialogue, was held in Singapore 4-6 June 2010. Director of Studies Andrew Shearer participated in the Q&A session after the Keynote Address by Lee Myung-Bak, President, Republic of Korea. The transcript is available at: http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2010/plenary-session-speeches/keynote-address/qa/ The full proccedings of the Dialogue can be read at: http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2010/# More

Shearer discusses security developments in Northeast Asia Andrew Shearer in Shanghai Oriental Morning Post Andrew Shearer was quoted in today’s Shanghai Oriental Morning Post commenting on recent security developments in Northeast Asia, including the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, the ensuing combined US-South Korea naval exercises under way off the Korean Peninsula and regional concerns about China’s rapid military modernisation program. (Attached article in Mandarin) Download item (547KB)

Andrew Shearer writes of the demise of the Asia Pacific Community idea The APC is a dead parrot In an opinion piece published on Caixin Online, Andrew Shearer argues that the concept of an Asia Pacific Community as proposed by Kevin Rudd is now defunct, but that Australia has a strong record of institution-building in Asia which should be continued. Caixin Online, 20 July 2010 Download item (23KB)

India-China maritime security India ahoy In this opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal (Asia), International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that India needs to sustain its smart naval diplomacy to manage tensions as China’s role increases in the Indian Ocean. Wall Street Journal, 29 April 2010 Download item (60KB)

Andrew Shearer's comments on the fate of the Asia Pacific Community proposal spark debate ABC Radio Australia item about Asia Pacific Community Linda Mottram quotes Andrew Shearer without attribution on the Prime Minister's progress on the Asia Pacific Community proposal. More

Asia-Pacific idea 'still active' The Prime Minister rejects suggestions he's given up on his Asia-Pacific community proposal in this article by Dennis Shanahan, quoting Andrew Shearer. More

Rudd's Asian vision quietly buried Rowan Callick writes in the Australian about the apparent demise of the Prime Minister's Asia-Pacific Community plan, and quotes Andrew Shearer about the policy implications and diplomatic consequences. More

PM surrenders ground on his concept for the region Rowan Callick reports that the Prime Minister has backed down on his plan to create a new Asia-Pacific community, and quotes Andrew Shearer on this abandonment of a key foreign policy goal. More

Lowy Institute-IISS conference Asia's strategic landscape On Monday 7 June the Lowy Institute's MacArthur Foundation Asia Security project team, together with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, hosted a conference on the emerging fissures in Asia's strategic landscape. The event, held on the margins of the Shangri-La Dialogue, was based on a major Lowy Institute report - 'Power and Choice: Asian Security Futures' - and attracted many of the region's most renowned foreign and strategic policy thinkers. More

Nuclear arms control Nuclear weapons in Asia: why we should worry In the Lowy Institute's first Food for Thought lecture in Melbourne, on 23 March, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf explored how the dangers of nuclear-armed confrontation between states might be minimised in the Asian century. He focused on relations among the United States, China, India and Pakistan, considered Japan’s difficult position, and touched upon whether a middle power like Australia could make a difference. The presentation can be heard here: Nuclear weapons in Asia: why we should worry - MP3 (20MB) A video of the presentation can be watched by clicking on the photo above. More

Conference Report: Asia’s Nuclear Future In February 2010 the Lowy Institute co-hosted a major international workshop on Asia’s Nuclear Future with the US-based Non-Proliferation Policy Education Centre. Leading experts and security practitioners from the United States, China, Japan, India, Pakistan and Australia had a candid exchange of views about the challenges in restraining nuclear weapons and preventing nuclear-armed conflict in the Asian century. This conference report outlines some of the key issues discussed, and touches upon some of the practical policy recommendations presented. Download item (214KB)

Panel discussion Asia's security environment On 24 September, the Lowy Institute's MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project hosted a panel discussion on possible Asian security futures. Andrew Shearer, Rory Medcalf and Raoul Heinrichs discussed the long-term implications of the tectonic shifts under way in Asia's power distribution for regional security arrangements. Participants, including Australia's most senior strategic experts, considered questions such as: • How durable are the foundations of US primacy? • Would a new security order necessarily be competitive and dangerous, or could it be peaceful and cooperative? • Might Asia again return to primacy, but with China replacing the US as the dominant regional power? The event took place in the broader context of a meeting of the Australian chapter of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP), the region’s most established 'Track 2' security forum. More

Order, change and discontent in Asia's security future Shaping up On Friday 5 February, the Lowy Institute's MacArthur Project team delivered a seminar at the Australian National University entitled 'Shaping Up: Order, Change and Discontent in Asia's Security Future.' The seminar was hosted jointly by the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre and Department of International Relations, with the support of the MacArthur Foundation and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Policing and Security A podcast is available here. More

The Lowy Institute China Poll 2009 China and the world: public opinion and foreign policy The Lowy Institute has just released its first China Poll, a wide-ranging survey of Chinese public opinion towards a number of important international policy issues. By what do the Chinese people feel threatened? How do they feel about foreign investment from Australia, Canada and the United States? Which country do the Chinese people regard as the best place to be educated and what do they think of Australia - is it a good place to visit, a country with attractive values or is it suspicious of China? The 2009 Lowy Institute China Poll asked a broad sample of the Chinese population these questions and others. The Poll was partly funded with the generous assistance of the MacArthur Foundation as part of the Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project. Download item (244KB)

Andrew Shearer opinion piece Will America defend its Asian allies? In an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal, Andrew Shearer, Director of Studies and Senior Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute, analyses the Pentagon's recently-released 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review and comments on some of the implications for America’s allies in Asia. Wall Street Journal, 5 February 2010, p. 9 Download item (67KB)

New Lowy Institute Analysis Wicked weapons: North Asia's nuclear tangle The United States faces major challenges in engaging China, Japan and the Korean Peninsula in its quest for nuclear disarmament. In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf explores the ‘wicked’ nature of the region’s nuclear insecurity: how fixing one part of the problem risks aggravating others. He recommends ways forward, involving mutual and coordinated concessions among the United States, Japan and China, and taking account of the region’s strategic realities. This publication is supported by the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative: www.nuclearsecurityproject.org. This project builds on the 2007 Wall Street Journal article 'A World Free of Nuclear Weapons' by George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn. Download item (536KB)

Media release Lowy Institute launches MacArthur Foundation Asian Security Project The Lowy Institute has launched a major new three-year project to explore the limits of security cooperation in Asia and promote measures to prevent the region's growing strategic rivalries from deepening and escalating into war. The project is supported by a generous grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. For more information please see the following media release. Download item (170KB)

Inaugural Grantees Meeting presentation The Lowy Institute's MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project On the 28-29 May, a team from the Lowy Institute attended the inaugural grantees meeting of the MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Initiative in Singapore. The team, led by Director of Studies Andrew Shearer, participated in a workshop alongside 26 partner institutions from the Asia-Pacific, which involved this short presentation introducing the Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project. Download item (622KB)

MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project team Project brief In a recent project brief for the MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Initiative, the Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project team outlined their project’s central objectives over the next three years, as well as its research methodology and means of dissemination. Download item (243KB)

Wicked weapons: North Asia's nuclear tangle Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Rory Medcalf presentation At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 24 June, Rory Medcalf, Program Director International Security, drew upon recent consultations in the region to warn that efforts to reduce global nuclear dangers will founder if they do not account for the rising strategic concerns of North Asian powers, especially China and Japan. Mr Medcalf’s research for this presentation was supported by the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security Project (www.nuclearsecurityproject.org). His presentation can be heard here: Wicked weapons - MP3 (19MB) Video of this presentation is also available. More

Japanese translation of Lowy Institute Perspective Going global - Japanese version In 'Going global: a new Australia-Japan agenda for multilateral cooperation', a Lowy Institute report released on 30 April 2009, supported by the Australia-Japan Foundation, Andrew Shearer and Malcolm Cook proposed a new agenda for multilateral cooperation between Australia and Japan. That report is now available for download here in Japanese. Download item (548KB)

New Lowy Institute Perspective Australia and Japan: Going global In new Lowy Institute report, supported by the Australia-Japan Foundation, Andrew Shearer and Malcolm Cook propose a new agenda for multilateral cooperation between Australia and Japan. The growing international weight of Asia and the forces of globalisation are expanding the number of issues states must manage and respond to in new ways. Yet, the traditional multilateral organisations are under growing strain and have proven largely ineffective. Japan and Australia, as long-standing supporters of an effective multilateral world and complementary powers in Asia, are well placed to cooperate more intensely on a range of multilateral issues and through new groupings like the G-20 and Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate. Australia-Japan cooperation in Iraq from 2004 to 2006 and the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmaments are good building blocks. Much more should be done. Download item (613KB)