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17 Aug 2010 - Publication
Into the Dragon’s den
While Chinese foreign investment into Australia has been the subject of a great deal of controversy, investment flows moving in the other direction have received much less attention. In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, John Larum reviews Australian foreign direct investment into China and discusses the related policy implications.
The paper reviews the Australia-China bilateral economic relationship, looks at the drivers of Australian FDI to China, examines China’s inward FDI policies, and reviews the potential role of a successful Australia-China Free Trade Agreement.
John Larum
16 Aug 2010 - Publication
Sweet and sour: Australian public attitudes towards China
 Foreign policy has hardly featured in the 2010 election campaign. That's a shame. Australia faces an increasingly uncertain international environment. One of the most pressing challenges facing the next government will be putting in place a durable policy framework to guide Australia's increasingly complex relationship with a rising China.
In this paper Andrew Shearer analyses changing public attitudes to China and the implications for policy.
Part 2 of the video is available by clicking here.
Andrew Shearer
4 Aug 2010 - Publication
Making international development assistance work
Australia’s aid program has been in the news lately, with calls for a wider public debate on the role of overseas aid. But public debate is being shaped by starkly contradictory arguments. An educated layperson who has just finished reading Jeffrey Sachs on The End of Poverty, for example, might think that aid can provide an important solution to the world’s problems. One who has just completed William Easterly’s The White Man's Burden or Dambisa Moyo’s Dead Aid, on the other hand, is likely to have quite different views on the utility of their country’s aid program. In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Joel Negin provides a general introduction to the increasingly complex arena of international development assistance. Joel places the challenges of development assistance into a global context and provides an overview of global and Australian aid trends.
Joel Negin
30 Nov 2009 - Publication
Al-Qa'ida, tribes and instability in Yemen
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Sarah Phillips and
Rodger Shanahan discuss the re-emergence of a significant al-Qa’ida presence in Yemen. The authors focus on al-Qa’ida’s efforts to build relations with local Yemeni tribes, something that will be central to the movement’s prospects of cementing a long-term presence in the country. The authors point to the importance of undermining any potential nexus between al-Qaida and the tribes as critical to Western counter-terrorism efforts in the region.
Dr Sarah Phillips Dr Rodger Shanahan
25 Nov 2009 - Publication
Comprehending Copenhagen: a guide to the international climate change negotiations
From 7-18 December, the world’s attention will be focused on Copenhagen, where representatives of 192 nations will gather in an attempt to strike a new international agreement to respond to the urgent challenge of global climate change. In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Dr Greg Picker and Fergus Green aim to demystify the negotiations and deepen public understanding of this important process. From the expansion of international carbon markets to proposals for curbing tropical deforestation, the paper elucidates the key issues to be negotiated in Copenhagen and outlines the positions of the various countries and groups to each issue. The paper also explains the Conference’s processes, weighs the likely outcomes and considers its potential implications for Australia and beyond.
Fergus Green Dr Greg Picker
28 Sep 2009 - Publication
Linking growth and poverty reduction in Papua New Guinea
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Laurence Chandy examines the relationship between economic growth and poverty in Papua New Guinea. Using a new analytical framework, he explains why the 'poverty dividend' from growth is often small and what can be done to increase it.
These questions have special resonance today. The PNG economy has succeeded in unlocking growth in recent years, delivering the longest uninterrupted spell of economic expansion since independence. Further growth, at a much higher rate, may now be around the corner with the highly anticipated LNG project. Yet despite this good news, the country faces formidable development challenges and remains off track to meet any of the Millennium Development Goals.
Laurence Chandy
21 Sep 2009 - Publication
Wicked weapons: North Asia's nuclear tangle
The United States faces major challenges in engaging China, Japan and the Korean Peninsula in its quest for nuclear disarmament. In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf explores the ‘wicked’ nature of the region’s nuclear insecurity: how fixing one part of the problem risks aggravating others. He recommends ways forward, involving mutual and coordinated concessions among the United States, Japan and China, and taking account of the region’s strategic realities.
This publication is supported by the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative: www.nuclearsecurityproject.org. This project builds on the 2007 Wall Street Journal article 'A World Free of Nuclear Weapons' by George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn.
Rory Medcalf
5 Aug 2009 - Publication
How Defence can contribute to Australia's national security strategy
As the Federal Government prepares to develop the successor document to its inaugural 2008 National Security Statement, this new Lowy Institute Analysis considers what needs to be done to improve the oft-quoted whole-of-government approach to national security, and where Government can draw inspiration for crafting that approach.
Against the backdrop provided by the National Security Statement, the ADF mission must be recognised as supporting a broader spectrum of operations and activities and an ability to transition rapidly between them.
The paper considers these implications, and how Defence can actively support more effective interactions across the national security effort, drawing on Defence and the ADF’s resident experience in interoperability and deliberate planning.
Lieutenant Colonel Nicholas Floyd
8 Jul 2009 - Publication
The global financial crisis and international migration: implications for Australia
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Khalid Koser, Director of the New Threats and Human Security Programme at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, examines the impact of the global financial crisis on international migration, the challenges to Australia of these effects, and how national policy should most appropriately respond.
Dr Khalid Koser
9 Jun 2009 - Publication
Between defiance and détente: Iran’s 2009 presidential election and its impact on foreign policy
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, 'Between defiance and détente: Iran’s 2009 presidential election and its impact on foreign policy', Iranian researcher Mahmoud Alinejad looks ahead to the Iranian presidential election on 12 June. He assesses the four candidates’ prospects and analyses the potential impact of the election on key aspects of Iran’s foreign policy, in particular the nuclear issue and relations with the United States.
Mahmoud Alinejad
12 May 2009 - Publication
Indonesia's democratic choices
Indonesia's parliamentary elections in April underlined just how far democracy has come in the world's fourth most populous country and Australia's closest Asian neighbour. The campaign itself and the ballot box results also provide some clear signals about the future shape and health of Indonesia's democratic system.
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Dr Marcus Mietzner from the Australian National University clearly analyses the election results and what they can tell us about Indonesia's democratic future. The report goes well beyond predictions about the upcoming presidential election and looks forward to the post-Yudhoyono era of Indonesian politics.
'Indonesia's 2009 elections: populism, dynasties and the consolidation of the party system' can be downloaded here.
12 Mar 2009 - Publication
Nobody's client: the reawakening of Iraqi sovereignty
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Lydia Khalil explores the growing confidence of Iraq's government under Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki.
In 'Nobody's client: the reawakening of Iraqi sovereignty', Khalil describes the major shift that has taken place in Iraq's relationship with the United States and how today Baghdad is pursuing its own interests with much less regard for Washington's desires.
Lydia Khalil is a non-resident fellow in the West Asia Program at the Lowy Institute. She was recently appointed as an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Prior to this Lydia was a counterterrorism analyst for the New York Police Department and a policy advisor for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad.
Lydia Khalil
12 Dec 2008 - Publication
Putting the genie back in the bottle: ruling regimes and the new media in the Arab world
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis Australian journalist David Hardaker examines the growth and impact of the 'new media' - primarily the internet and satellite television - in the Arab world. He explores how autocratic regimes face a difficult challenge of reining in new electronic outlets for dissent while at the same time ensuring that their countries benefit from the global digital economy.
David Hardaker is a former award-winning Middle East correspondent for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. He speaks Arabic and has lived and worked in the Middle East for a number of years.
David Hardaker
10 Dec 2008 - Publication
Ambition: the emerging foreign policy of the Rudd Government
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis entitled 'Ambition: the emerging foreign policy of the Rudd Government', Lowy Institute Executive Director Allan Gyngell explores what we have learned about the Rudd Government's emerging foreign policy, about the Prime Minister's own contributions to it and what questions it raises for the future.
Allan Gyngell AO
27 Nov 2008 - Publication
Australia, East Asia and the current financial crisis
In a new Analysis, Dr Stephen Grenville argues that as the international crisis begins to impinge more strongly on Asia, one of the potential protective responses – the Chiang Mai Initiative – needs some tweaking to make it politically acceptable for countries which need it. Australia might be able to offer some low-key support here and could use the opportunity to participate more fully.
Dr Stephen Grenville AO
23 Oct 2008 - Publication
Hope or glory? The presidential election, US foreign policy and Australia
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Dr Michael Fullilove, Program Director for Global Issues at the Lowy Institute and a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, examines the foreign policies of US presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain and assesses the implications for Australia.
Dr Michael Fullilove
17 Sep 2008 - Publication
Bad moon not rising: the myth of the Shi'a crescent
Accusations that a Shi'a crescent is emerging in the Arab world following the rise of a Shi'a government in Iraq and the actions of Hizbullah in Lebanon, have provoked much discussion and highlighted fears of Iran's co-religionists gaining political power at the expense of the traditional Sunni leadership. In this new Analysis, Dr Rodger Shanahan examines the status of the Shi'a communities in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and argues that, rather than an emerging Shi'a crescent in the Gulf, there are simply differing national groups struggling to varying degrees to achieve political reform.
Dr Rodger Shanahan
8 Sep 2008 - Publication
Restraining nuclear arms in the Asian century: an agenda for Australia
In this Lowy Institute Analysis, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf provides background and detail for his proposals for renewed Australian activism on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament issues, introduced in the Lowy Institute Policy Brief 'Nuclear security: what else can Australia do?'
Rory Medcalf
30 Jul 2008 - Publication
After Doha: the search for Plan B
The Doha round of world trade talks has collapsed. After the negotiations were suspended back in July 2006, Mark Thirlwell wrote that – regardless of the ultimate outcome of the Round – the era of giant, set-piece trade negotiations like Doha and its predecessor, the Uruguay Round, was over. The world would therefore have to search for a Plan B for international trade. In the short term, the most likely Plan B on offer would be a further turn to regional and bilateral trade arrangements. But in the longer term, reform of the multilateral system would be required. The same assessment holds today.
Mark Thirlwell
11 Jun 2008 - Publication
The dragon looks south
China refuses to release figures on the size of its aid program. In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, Fergus Hanson takes a region-wide look at the scale of China’s aid program, revealing a dramatic increase in aid pledges since 2005. It looks at the key drivers of China’s engagement, the reactions its aid program has sparked, and concludes with some suggestions for improving the way Australia and other donors engage with China in the Pacific.
Fergus Hanson
18 Apr 2008 - Publication
China's Olympic challenge
With the troubled Olympic Torch coming to Canberra next week, the Beijing Olympics and what it means for China will be centre stage in Australia. In 2004 and 2007, John Bowan wrote for the Lowy Institute about the challenges and opportunities the 2008 Olympic Games offer China. In his 2007 piece, John predicted that in the run-up the Games 'China's patience and political sophistication will be tested relentlessly by the Western media and the country's growing strength as a world power will weaken any disposition towards a sympathetic marking from world opinion.' John Bowan was the Manager for International Relations for the Sydney Organising Committee for the Olympic Games and worked as a consultant on the Beijing bid.
The papers can be read at:
http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=685
http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=159
John Bowan
10 Apr 2008 - Publication
Nuclear power in Southeast Asia: Implications for Australia and non-proliferation
This Lowy Institute Analysis by regional energy specialist Andrew Symon explores the reasons and prospects for increased interest in nuclear power in Southeast Asia, as well as implications for Australia and nuclear weapons non-proliferation. A key issue is whether countries will embark on sensitive segments of the fuel cycle. Approaches to help allay such concerns include international fuel supply mechanisms and the possibility of a co-operative approach to nuclear power development within ASEAN. Australia, as a major uranium supplier, regional neighbour and supporter of non-proliferation, will want to ensure that nuclear power in Southeast Asia develops safely and in a context of co-operation.
The late Andrew Symon
11 Oct 2007 - Publication
Beijing 2008 Olympic Games
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, John Bowan looks at the progress of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. On the technical side all looks good. On the political and public relations side, there are a number of growing challenges. These span from Taiwan's participation in the Torch Relay, to environmental concerns to growing criticism of Chinese foreign and domestic policies by international NGOs like Amnesty International. Next year's Olympics will put Beijing and China on the world stage The question is: where will the spotlight shine?
John Bowan has worked as a consultant on Beijing's successful bid for the Games and was Manager of International Relations for the Sydney Games from 1997 to 2000. In 2004, John wrote a longer piece on the international politics of the Beijing Games for the Lowy Institute.
John Bowan
17 Sep 2007 - Publication
More second thoughts
Earlier this year in Lowy Institute Paper 18, 'Second thoughts on globalisation', Mark Thirlwell looked at how the globalisation-powered rise of China and India was disconcerting some in the developed world, and prompting a re-evaluation of the costs and benefits of globalisation. This Lowy Institute Analysis looks at how this process has evolved since the earlier Paper was written.
Mark Thirlwell
10 Aug 2007 - Publication
Ten years after the Asian Crisis
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Dr Stephen Grenville looks back at the decade-old Asian financial crisis in search of insights on current vulnerabilities. Dr Grenville argues that while there is little chance of any repeat of 1997-98 any time soon, at some point in the future the core vulnerabilities of the crisis period will re-emerge: volatile capital flows and fragile financial markets. Moreover, if the future does hold another sudden stop capital reversal, the IMF has neither the resources nor the procedures to act as an effective lender of last resort. Worse, the Fund lost credibility in the region during the crisis, which means that countries will be slow and reluctant to draw on its assistance.
Dr Stephen Grenville AO
5 Jun 2007 - Publication
Sensible climate policy
The release of the report by the Prime Ministerial Task Group on Emissions Trading has received a lot of attention. The broad philosophy of that report is based on the McKibbin-Wilcoxen Blueprint, an approach developed by the Lowy Insitute's Professorial Fellow, Warwick McKibbin and Professor Peter Wilcoxen of Syracuse University. The approach was developed for the Australian policy community in the February 2005 Lowy Institute Issues Brief, 'Sensible Climate Policy'.
Professor Warwick McKibbin
30 Apr 2007 - Publication
The European Union and China
In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, Roberto Menotti of the Aspen Institute Italia examines the European Union's policy responses to the rise of China.
The EU is a newcomer to East Asian affairs, but its stake in the region is growing rapidly in light of China's economic clout. The European approach to China's rise differs profoundly from that of the US, due to geopolitical realities and a general belief in the benign effects of economic interdependence. Roberto Menotti argues, however, that the EU has so far failed to pursue a coherent common policy, as seen in the debate in 2004-2005 over Europe's decision to revoke the arms ban on China. He suggests that one problem of the European approach has been the fuzzy distinction between multilateralism (an international methodology) and multipolarity (a particular type of international system).
Roberto Menotti is Senior Research Fellow in the International Programs at Aspen Institute Italia in Rome.
Roberto Menotti
12 Oct 2006 - Publication
After Doha: II. Is globalisation history?
In this Lowy Institute Analysis Mark Thirlwell asks whether the collapse of the Doha Round of trade negotiations marks the beginning of the end for globalisation. Several observers have warned of the dangers of a resurgent protectionism, drawing in particular on the historical example provided by the collapse of an earlier globalisation episode. A review of globalisation, nineteenth century style, suggests that such concerns are overdone. Nevertheless, the historical record confirms that globalisation does create significant adjustment pressures, highlighting the importance of a fully functioning multilateral trading system. This paper is a companion piece to After Doha: I. The search for Plan B.
Mark Thirlwell
25 Sep 2006 - Publication
After Doha: I. The search for Plan B
In a Lowy Institute Analysis, Mark Thirlwell argues that while the suspension of negotiations in late July may or may not mark the end of the Doha Round, it will almost certainly mark a watershed for the international trading system. With Doha in the deep freeze and the future of the multilateral system in question, the search is now on for a Plan B for international trade. The most likely Plan B on offer is a deepening of the world economy's recent infatuation with preferential trade agreements. In the long term, however, the best alternative would look to reform of the multilateral system.
Mark Thirlwell
4 Sep 2006 - Publication
Roaring tiger or lumbering elephant?
After years of economic underperformance, the Indian economic model has been transformed, and with it, India's growth performance. So much so that the last two years have brought both a widespread rethink on India’s prospects and a wave of foreign portfolio investment. This new-found optimism received something of a setback earlier this year, when there were sharp falls in Indian stocks markets. In a new paper that updates the analysis in his Lowy Paper 'India: the next economic giant', Mark Thirlwell takes another look at India's development model, evaluating both its strengths and its weaknesses and highlighting the idiosyncratic nature of India’s development path.
Mark Thirlwell
22 Aug 2006 - Publication
Koizumi's legacy: Japan's new politics
In a Lowy Institute Analysis, Dr Malcolm Cook evaluates Prime Minister Koizumi's legacy for Japanese politics and international policy. Koizumi has rebuilt the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, moved the Japanese political system significantly to the right and reprioritised Japan's international policy. He has been Japan's most powerful, controversial and successful post-war prime minister.
Dr Malcolm Cook
31 Jul 2006 - Publication
The next UN Secretary-General
Last week the UN Security Council carried out a straw poll to provide an indication of the support for the various candidates for Secretary-General. Dr Michael Fullilove's recent Issues Brief, entitled Angels & dragons: Asia, the UN, reform and the next Secretary-General, canvassed the various candidacies and set out the implications of an Asian Secretary-General. The paper is available here.
19 May 2006 - Publication
Fuelling confrontation: Iran, the US and the oil weapon
In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, Anthony Bubalo, Michael Fullilove and Mark Thirlwell explore the prospect and implications of Iran's using oil as a weapon in its current confrontation with the international community over the nuclear issue.
Anthony Bubalo Dr Michael Fullilove Mark Thirlwell
10 Mar 2006 - Publication
The testament of Solomons: RAMSI and international state-building
The unrest in Honiara of 18-19 April underlines the fragility of Solomon Islands as well as the sheer difficulty of rebuilding weak states.
The background to and key features of the Australian-led Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) were set out in this March 2006 Analysis by Dr Michael Fullilove.
For further information see Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands website at: http://www.ramsi.org
Dr Michael Fullilove
16 Feb 2006 - Publication
Global macroeconomic consequences of pandemic influenza
In a major new Analysis, Professor Warwick McKibbin and Dr Alexandra Sidorenko explore the implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak on the global economy.
Their paper examines a range of scenarios (mild, moderate, severe and ultra) that span the historical experience of influenza pandemics of the twentieth century.
Their analysis finds that a pandemic would be expected to lead to: a fall in the labour force; an increase in the cost of doing business; a shift in consumer preferences; and a re-evaluation of country risk.
The paper finds that even a mild pandemic has significant consequences for global output, costing the world 1.4 million lives and approximately US$330 billion in lost output.
Professor Warwick McKibbin
21 Dec 2005 - Publication
Iran, the international community and the nuclear issue: where to next?
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Anthony Bubalo and Michael Fullilove examine the likely trajectory of efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear question, an issue that is likely to lead the international foreign policy agenda in 2006. The authors canvass a range of scenarios including IAEA and Security Council resolutions, sanctions and the unilateral use of force.
Anthony Bubalo Dr Michael Fullilove
31 Aug 2005 - Publication
Multilateral approaches to the nuclear fuel cycle
In the latest Lowy Institute Issues Brief, "Multilateral Approaches to the Nuclear Fuel Cycle", former Australian Governor on the Board of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Lance Joseph, addresses nuclear proliferation dangers of today and how these might be addressed. It would help, for example, if proliferation-sensitive technologies — enrichment and reprocessing — were put under multilateral control.
Australia, with its strong non-proliferation credentials, might take a leading role with a coalition of countries to build support for such an approach.
Lance Joseph
29 Jul 2005 - Publication
Angels and dragons: Asia, the UN, reform and the next Secretary-General
This Issues Brief assesses the relationship between the United Nations and Asia – both the UN's activities in Asia and the behaviour of Asian states at the UN. Dr Michael Fullilove, Program Director for Global Issues, reviews the current stances of the three major regional powers — China, India, and Japan — towards the UN, previews the September World Summit on UN reform, and examines the prospects for an Asian Secretary-General, which has the potential to thicken Asia's interactions with the UN.
Dr Michael Fullilove
6 Jun 2005 - Publication
Buying air warfare destroyers: a strategic decision
The Government has chosen a builder for three new Air Warfare Destroyers [AWDs] before it has properly considered whether we really need to buy them, and how best to buy them if we do. At $6 billion it's the biggest defence equipment decision in fifteen years, so it needs more careful consideration. In fact AWDs are far from our highest defence priority; buying them would be a mistake, and squeeze more important Air and Army capabilities. And Defence's complex new acquisition process raises real risks that, if it goes ahead, the project will run into some of the same problems that have dogged the Collins submarines. Ministers need to look carefully before signing off on it.
Professor Hugh White
25 May 2005 - Publication
Building a democratic Palestine: an Australian contribution to legal and institutional development in the Palestinian territories
Legal and institutional reform in the Palestinian territories is a critical and often overlooked component of the effort to reach a peaceful settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. This Issues Brief by Anthony Bubalo explores the importance of such reforms in the context of current efforts to end violence against Israel and provide Palestinians with greater confidence in their economic and political future. It argues that Australia should join other donors in contributing what assistance it can to help Palestinians strengthen the rule of law and build strong public institutions.
Anthony Bubalo
14 Feb 2005 - Publication
Sensible climate policy
After almost 13 years of negotiations the Kyoto Protocol will finally enter into force on February 16, 2005. In a new Lowy Institute Issues Brief, Professorial Fellow Warwick McKibbin, one of the world's leading authorities on climate change policy, argues that Kyoto is likely to achieve very little in the quest to address the problem of climate change. Even worse, the Kyoto Protocol is so badly constructed that it has set back the quest for sensible and effective policy responses to climate change by at least a decade. The basic tenets on which the agreement is built are flawed, leaving it worryingly vulnerable to failure. In this Issues Brief Professor McKibbin outlines the requirements for a sustainable and realistic global response to climate change, describes the progress made so far in developing policy, outlines the flaws in the current Kyoto approach, and presents a more effective alternative.
Professor Warwick McKibbin
21 Dec 2004 - Publication
India's energy needs
India's exploding demand for energy is confronting New Delhi with two important dilemmas. India's internal dilemma is that to satisfy its energy needs, it must balance reform and expansion of its energy sector with the need to avoid alienating key domestic constituencies. The external dilemma derives from India's increasing reliance on imported energy against the backdrop of a hostile neighbourhood.
Nick Hordern analyses the consequences of India's exploding demand for energy and looks at some of the implications for Australia.
Nick Hordern
14 Dec 2004 - Publication
Energy insecurity: China, India and Middle East oil
Anthony Bubalo and Mark Thirlwell examine China and India's growing thirst for imported oil, particularly from the Middle East, and consider some of the possible longer term strategic implications associated with this trend in a new Lowy Institute Issues Brief.
Anthony Bubalo Mark Thirlwell
26 Nov 2004 - Publication
The 'Khmer Islam' community in Cambodia and its foreign patrons
Dr Milton Osborne, Australia's pre-eminent Cambodia expert, in a new Lowy Institute Issues Brief, looks at the revival of Cambodia's Islamic minority in the post-Pol Pot period. After providing a detailed historical background of Khmer Islam and its social marginalisation, the report analyses the largely unreported role regional and Middle Eastern groups and Islamist doctrines are playing in this proposal. Cambodia's revival, as with the rest of Southeast Asia, is a complex mix of entrenched local factors and new regional and Middle Eastern influences.
Dr Milton Osborne
10 Nov 2004 - Publication
Beyond Arafat
Anthony Bubalo, research fellow, argues that Yasser Arafat's death could have longer term positive implications for both Palestinian political reform and efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but in the short term the impact will be more limited. Arafat's immediate successors will not be able to end the current chaos in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Nor are the fundamentals of the current impasse with Israel likely to be overcome.
Anthony Bubalo
27 Oct 2004 - Publication
Bush is from Mars, Kerry is from Mars too
Although there are significant differences in style and substance between George Bush and John Kerry, the similarities in foreign policy terms are more striking than is sometimes understood.
From Australia's perspective, the fundamentals of our relationship with the US are excellent and the alliance will endure regardless of Tuesday's outcome.
However, argues Michael Fullilove in this Issues Brief, the temperature of the relationship will necessarily be affected by the result.
Dr Michael Fullilove
30 Sep 2004 - Publication
Transpacific trade imbalances: causes and cures
This Issues Brief by Professor Warwick McKibbin and others explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances.
We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalance since 1997 is changes in saving-investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the U.S. fiscal deficits and the decline of East Asia's private investment after the 1997 financial crisis.
An appreciation of East Asia exchange rates (including by China) alone will have an impact on economic activity in the appreciating economies, but does little to change the underlying savings and investment patterns and therefore has insignificant impact on the transpacific trade balance.
Professor Warwick McKibbin
20 Aug 2004 - Publication
The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games: China in the limelight
John Bowan, a former senior Australian foreign policy official, and consultant to Beijing's successful Olympic bid, examines how Beijing and China won the 2008 Games and what this will mean for China and its position in the world.
The 2008 Olympics will open China to unprecedented international scrutiny, with consequences that will range far beyond sport.
John Bowan
20 May 2004 - Publication
Israel's withdrawal from Gaza: a role for Australia?
This paper explores the possibility that further Australian military forces will be sought for the Middle East, in this case for a peacekeeping force in the Gaza Strip.
Despite the defeat of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan for a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in a Likud Party referendum, the Israeli public will continue to press for a withdrawal, and, in all likelihood, it will occur. But the withdrawal process itself raises a number of questions and it is likely that international assistance, in the form of a small peacekeeping force, will be required. If this occurs, Australia may be sought out as one of only a few countries whose contribution would be acceptable to Israel and the Palestinians.
Anthony Bubalo
19 Feb 2004 - Publication
Election Watch. Japan's party system: shifting the political axis, releasing economic reform
This Issues Brief examines how changes to the Japanese political system, reflected in the November 9 election results, offer new hope for structural economic reforms that would benefit Australia
Dr Malcolm Cook
10 Feb 2004 - Publication
The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: a preliminary assessment
On 8 February Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile concluded an agreed text for an Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement. This Issues Brief provides a preliminary assessment of the agreement, based on the limited information now available.
Mark Thirlwell
8 Feb 2004 - Publication
The international economy in 2003…
This Issues Brief suggests that a key theme over the past year has been the management of external imbalances in a world economy that is not only increasingly integrated but which is simultaneously undergoing a sustained geographic shift in the distribution of economic weight towards Asia.
Mark Thirlwell
15 Nov 2003 - Publication
Revaluing the renminbi...
There are strong parallels between today’s US-China tensions over trade and US-Japan economic relations in the 1980s.
Mark Thirlwell
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