Monday 18 Feb 2019 | 11:16 | SYDNEY
What's happening on

Uncategorized

Where economics fits in the security debate

The relationship between the intelligence and strategic communities on the one hand, and economists on the other, has a rich and storied history. Nobel Laurette Thomas Schelling perhaps exemplifies the interactions at their best. Schelling’s work on game theory and strategy influenced US

UN and Obama Summits: What's Next?

After years of refugee and migrant crises, for the first time in history this week 193 UN member states agreed to a unified approach. It was a consensus that was mostly talk with little action but it could yet be a platform for change. The Summit's main achievement was to adopt the New York

Fred Smith in conversation

If you have enjoyed the music of one-time diplomat turned musician and now author, Fred Smith, why not come and hear him in conversation with the Lowy Institute's research director Anthony Bubalo in Sydney tomorrow. Fred's acclaimed album Dust of Uruzgan evokes the two years he spent working

Measuring the value of digital diplomacy

Last Friday, I joined a panel discussion at the Young Australians in International Affairs Future 21 conference. The YAIIA is a great organisation, and if you have any interest in international affairs, you should check it out. Future21 was its first national conference and had a stellar line up of

Afghanistan conflict fuels desperate journeys

As planting season started in the northern Afghan province of Baghlan this spring, so did the fighting. One farmer, Ibrahim (he uses only one name), and his family had barely tilled their land when they had to leave. Fighting had been close by for most of the past year, but now it was in their

It's time for a new intelligence review

It has been five years since the release of the Independent Review of the Intelligence Community (or IRIC). Why do we need another review now? The IRIC endorsed the work the Australian Intelligence Community (AIC) had undertaken in response to the recommendations made by Philip Flood in his

How’s the Australian economy going?

Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. Australia ( the red line) has outperformed all the main advanced economies (which fall within the blue segments) for increase in GDP and per-capital GDP, is lower than almost all on unemployment (Japan is lowest, New Zealand a bit lower than

Quick Comment: M Chatib Basri on economics and Indonesia

Following today's eleventh annual Sydney Indonesia Update, Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Stephen Grenville sat down with former Indonesian Finance Minister and Thee Kian Wie Distinguished Visiting Professor at ANU M Chatib Basri to discuss all things Indonesia and economics, including where

North Korea: Reaching for Armageddon

North Korea does not naturally inspire optimism. Yet the tone among expert observers of the country's missile and nuclear programs has taken an unmistakably pessimistic tilt of late. Concern is mounting at Pyongyang's rapid technical advances. The frequency, sophistication and success rate of recent

Fiji’s democracy cracks again

Last weekend Fiji's police force arrested six prominent opponents of the ruling party. Their alleged crime was breaching the Public Order Act by making remarks about the constitution at a conference convened by Pacific Dialogue, an NGO, on Fiji's Constitution Day. The arrests were nothing short of a

Why Vietnam has India in its sights

Narendra Modi is easily one of the India's most travelled prime ministers. His trip to the US in June, where he addressed Congress in English, was beneficial and ended with the declaration that India was now a 'major defense partner' of the US however more recently Modi stopped off in Vietnam on the

Quick comment: Rodger Shanahan on foreign fighters

In this quick comment, the Lowy Institute's Rodger Shanahan discusses how the uneasy co-operation between the West and Russia and Iran in the fight against Islamic State needs to continue to help combat the threat posed by foreign fighters leaving Syria and Iraq. Dr Shanahan and Lydia Khalil are the

Still time for intrigue in United Nations SG race

So far the selection process for the next UN Secretary General hasn't generated much razzle dazzle. Hopes are fading the long process will result in the appointment of the first woman to the post, for example. We are yet to see any Security Council member exercise a veto, an act that could prompt a

Indonesia's energy expansion: Delayed and uncertain

Indonesia’s ambitious 35,000 MW (megawatt) electricity expansion is falling behind schedule. How the project will be expedited in the context of organisational changes within government is unclear, as is the status of remote power delivery and progress on renewables. A decision in May by

Terrorism: It's not all in the numbers

In responding to terrorist threats (such as Islamic State's highly publicised targeting of Australian suburbs and landmarks), governments need to avoid worsening the very fear that terrorists seek to generate. One popular but flawed method of attempting to undercut this fear is to point out how few

THAAD: A turning point on the peninsula?

When the history of North Korea's arms programs is written, the key event in 2016 may well be identified not as last Friday's (or January's) nuclear test, but South Korea's decision to allow US deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile interceptor system on its soil.

The Syria (no big) peace deal

Ronald Reagan famously said of a nuclear agreement with the then Soviet Union that it was based on an attitude of 'trust, but verify'. Perhaps slightly contradictory but very realpolitik nonetheless. Thirty years later, Secretary of State John Kerry's admission that the latest Syrian cessation of

Postscript: Dealing with the North Korea nuclear threat

In May I wrote that a North Korean nuclear test was clearly imminent. Last week's test came as no surprise. The test, and North Korea’s recent missile tests, show that sanctions are not working. If nothing changes, North Korea is moving inexorably towards an operational nuclear arsenal that

G20: Time to end the circus

The dust has settled on another G20 summit, the latest held in Hangzhou, China. The small group of think tanks who follow the G20 are disappointed with the outcomes. What’s new? The G20 has been a disappointment for a number of years. Perhaps it’s time to reflect on what works and what

Taking stock of Asia’s summit season

Summit season in Asia came early in 2016. Normally, the concentration of ASEAN ministerial, the East Asia Summit (EAS) and the APEC leaders’ meeting occurs in November. As the EAS is tacked on to the ASEAN summit, APEC being hosted by Peru, and with the G20 meeting in Hangzhou in September the

Donald Trump and Northeast Asian nuclearisation

One of the great misfortunes of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign is that some of the policies he has suggested do actually deserve discussion, but are now tainted by the Orange One’s lunatic style, shallowness, and lack of focus. For example, Trump has raised long-overdue issues about

Where quantum satellites fit in PLA strategy

Last month China launched the world’s first quantum communications experiment satellite 'Micius' into orbit from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre in the Gobi Desert. The small satellite, named after an ancient Chinese philosopher, is tasked to establish a hack-proof communication line; a

Rodrigo Duterte's mayoral mentality

Before his first overseas trip as president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte answered a media question about his first planned meeting with President Obama, leader of the Philippines’ most important economic and security partner. It did not go well.  His (un)presidential comments

Australia stars in first edition of new ISIS magazine

The latest online magazine from Islamic State features an Australian flavour, among some other interesting aspects. First is the name change; no longer is 'Dabiq' the title (unless this masthead continues to put out editions separately); 'Rumiya' (formal Arabic for Rome) has replaced 'Dabiq'. As

Xi drives a grand bargain in China's summit season

For a country whose leaders are often loud in declaring their dislike of others meddling in their affairs, China seems very keen lately to host major international meetings that bring precisely the intense attention it usually feels uncomfortable with. There was the Asia Pacific Economic Meeting (

Laos: The US push to clean up the bombs it left behind

In news that may help Laos successfully compete for the world's attention in a week cram full of colourful leaders' meetings, the US has announced it will spend another $90 million to help clean up unexploded ordnance (UXO), a legacy of the two million tonnes of bombs the US dropped between 1964 and

Curing Mao fever

For China, 2016 is a year of anniversaries. It’s been 95 years since the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), 50 years since the beginning of the Cultural Revolution, and 40 years since the death of Mao Zedong, Communist China’s founding father. More than ever, the CCP is

Pages