Caucasus, explained.

A rally outside the Georgian parliament in Tbilisi last year to protest a "foreign influence" bill, which Brussels warned would undermine Georgia's European aspirations (Vano Shlamov/AFP via Getty Images)

Georgian Dream now nothing but a nightmare

Citizens find themselves torn between European identity and geopolitical reality.

Iona Main

18 August 20254 min read

In the trendy Sololaki neighbourhood of Tbilisi, Georgia, faded mansions line the avenues and the cafes and wine bars are bustling. Notably for this chic area, graffiti is everywhere – and not just the tags of bored teens (although there are plenty of those too). Most eye-catching is the frequency of anti-Russia and pro-Europe slogans, and spraypainted Georgian and Ukrainian flags – a visual reminder of Georgia’s geopolitical bind between Russia to its north and Europe to its west.

Georgia’s parliamentary elections in late 2024 saw the populist Georgian Dream party returned with an increased majority under dubious electoral circumstances and with evidence of extensive Russian interference. Georgian Dream, founded by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, swept to power in 2012, with a commitment to pursue European Union accession (a stance supported by upwards of 80% of Georgians). The party has gradually shed all pro-EU pretence and is now overtly seeking to more closely align Georgia with Russia, of whose Soviet empire it once formed part.

Many Georgians view Russia seeking to expand its foothold in their country as a question of “when” rather than “if”.

The government recently passed a deeply unpopular “foreign agents” law modelled on Russian legislation used to suppress dissent and media freedom, which it is energetically leveraging against members of opposition parties. The targeting of civil society activists and minorities, including LGBT+ people, in recent months has been violent and widespread. Georgian Dream has also provoked public and international outcry by announcing it will suspend Georgia’s progress towards EU accession until at least 2028. The EU has also expressed serious concerns about the country’s democratic backsliding.

For a people who identify strongly with Europe, Georgians’ outrage at their government is palpable – with graffiti again an effective medium of communication. Nightly protests occur outside the parliament, which is now covered in anti-Russian and protest slogans in Georgian and English. Front and centre below the building’s grand façade sits a tented protest HQ and a banner that reads “Sanction Putin’s puppet Ivanishvili and his pro-Russian government!!!”. Around the city, European Union flags fly proudly alongside the Georgian one outside everything from streetside cafes to government buildings, including the Foreign Ministry. Pharmacies advertise their stock of European-certified medicine, a subtle dig at the Russian alternative.

Protests outside the Georgian parliament (Iona Main)

Placards outside the Georgian parliament (Iona Main)

Georgian Dream founder and key influence Ivanishvili (colloquially known by his initials, B.I.) evokes the cartoon character oligarch. He rose from modest origins to make his billions as a businessman in Russia. The origins of his wealth are opaque, but his personal interests are undoubtedly well-served by friendly relations with Moscow. His political allies and acolytes have benefited significantly from closer alignment with Moscow. Ivanishvili himself has an extensive property portfolio, including a glass James Bond-style mansion perched on a hilltop overlooking Tbilisi, notable in a country that would become the EU’s poorest member should it join today, even as that possibility fades rapidly.

It is hard to imagine how Georgia can resolve peacefully the chasm between its government and its people on whether the country would be better off under the wing of Europe or Russia. Free and fair elections an increasingly dim prospect. The Ukrainian flags painted on walls across Tbilisi are a reminder that for many Georgians, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offers a chilling lesson in both the risks and importance of closer alignment with Europe.

Graffiti in Tbilisi streets (Iona Main)

Georgia’s northern border regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, representing 20% of the country’s territory, have been occupied by Russia since 2008 – with the West’s tepid response to that incursion laying the groundwork for Russia’s more recent invasions of Ukraine. Many Georgians view Russia seeking to expand its foothold in their country as a question of “when” rather than “if”, and fear that in contrast to much bigger, Western-backed Ukraine, little Georgia wouldn’t stand a chance in the face of a full-scale Russian invasion. It is something even the most pro-Europe Georgians are reluctant to test.

On a day-to-day basis, relations between Georgia and Russia are pragmatic, if cool. Trucks heading north from Tbilisi pass the colourful Russia-Georgia Friendship Monument en route to the Russian border, and carloads of Russian tourists travel south to explore Georgia’s mountains and wine regions. A café owner in a picturesque Kakheti town captured the mood, saying he refuses to speak Russian to the visitors even though he could – he doesn’t want them to feel too at home.

For now, Georgian Dream looks to be gaining momentum in its anti-democratic crackdown. Europe and the West’s stretched attention is mostly fixed on Ukraine. Russia has begun construction work on a naval base in occupied Abkhazia. While Georgians continue to voice their disenchantment at the nightly protests, whether they can arrest their country’s decline into Russian-style authoritarianism – and becoming fully entrenched in Moscow’s sphere of influence – might take another awakening.

About the author

Iona Main

Iona Main has worked as a foreign policy adviser for the Australian government in Canberra and New York, a management consultant at Bain & Company, and more recently as Chief of Staff to Allegra Spender MP.

Topics

Caucasus Russia