Hungary’s Viktor Orbán faces challenge to his illiberal democracy

A fresh leader has remade the opposition and hopes to galvanise local discontent.

Catherine Wilson

11 February 20254 min read

In Hungary, opposition parties have struggled to gain traction against the 15-year “illiberal democracy” government led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Institutional and media dominance favours the nationalist right-wing Fidesz Party coalition. But a rising opposition leader has seen a political window of opportunity as the next parliamentary election approaches in 2026.

“You have made Hungary the poorest, most corrupt nation in the European Union,” Péter Magyar, the 43-year-old leader of the Tisza (Respect and Freedom) Party, declared, railing against Orbán’s declining record on democracy and clean governance. Hungry saw more than 1 billion euros in EU funding cancelled in January, and holds the highest corruption perception ranking within the EU bloc, according to Transparency International.

“Enough of the propaganda of hatred, of warmongering, lies and throwing money around,” Magyar said last month in a call for change.

Orbán is defiant in his goal of conflating patriotism and autocratic virtual one-party rule, seeing this as the only way to advance Hungary, while also seeking a broader alliance of likeminded parties across the region. Nevertheless, reality is challenging his worldview. Public discontent has grown about the stagnating economy, low living standards, nepotism and social immobility.

His vocal backing for Russian President Putin’s war has infuriated Ukraine’s Western European allies.

The nation of 9.7 million people was part of the Soviet-occupied sphere until the collapse of Communism in 1989. Orbán, despite promoting democratic rights during his first period as prime minister from 1998-2002, has hardened towards authoritarianism since re-election in 2010. His government has moved to restrict independence of the judiciary and media, filled key institutional positions with party favourites, manipulated electoral boundaries, undermined human rights and used smear attacks to silence critics.

Meanwhile, his vocal backing for Russian President Putin’s war has infuriated Ukraine’s Western European allies. The EU has become assertive against Orbán’s tactics, reporting the government’s failures to support its laws and values.

However, Orbán also used his EU presidency last year to build a right-wing nationalist alliance, the Patriots for Europe, with 12 likeminded parties, including France’s National Rally, Spanish Vox and the Dutch Freedom Party. “Today we are creating a political formation that I believe will multiply and very quickly become the largest faction of the European Right,” Orbán said. Donald Trump’s return as US president has further emboldened this grouping, now the third-largest in the Union, which mimics his motto with “Make Europe Great Again”.

But, on home soil, many ordinary Hungarians, including the younger generation, are not seeing the dividends of Fidesz’s nationalist rhetoric. The economy has been struggling, GDP growth is in decline, state debt is rising and inflation high. Key voter issues include living standards that are lower than the EU average, struggling public services, high housing costs and social immobility. The opposition is concerned the younger generation is giving up rather than trying to fight the system. As perhaps a telling figure, the number of citizens emigrating rose from 12,413 in 2011 to 35,736 in 2023.

It was the government’s adverse exposure in February last year about the pardon of a man convicted of undermining justice in a child abuse case that provoked Magyar to resign from government-related roles. He then took the helm of and transformed the Tisza Party, emerging as the most robust challenger to Orbán since he took office.

“The atmosphere has changed; it has become much more advantageous for the challengers,” Professor Zsolt Enyedi at the Central European University in Budapest said. Now “there is a general dissatisfaction with the government.”

Magyar has not emerged from the traditional left-wing opposition. He is highly patriotic and promotes Hungarian sovereignty, but has a national development vision, which aspires to equitable outcomes, transparent democratic governance and respect for international institutions, human rights and EU values. He is youthful, media savvy, asks ordinary people for their opinions and rallies for the young, the poor and rarely heard rural voters. In his own words, he pledges “to be human always, in all circumstances.”

Recent polling results indicate his popularity. In last year’s European Parliament election, the Tisza Party soaked up 30 per cent of votes and secured seven seats, while Fidesz saw a decline in support with 11 seats. And in November and January, Tisza topped public opinion polls conducted by the IDEA Institute, recently tallying support of 33 per cent, compared to 26 per cent for Fidesz.

Tisza’s impact on Hungarian politics in a matter of months is a major achievement, given the odds. If it stays the course, and succeeds in galvanising a new generation of voters, then next year’s parliamentary election may not be as predictable as previous ones.

About the author

Catherine Wilson

Catherine Wilson is a freelance journalist and correspondent reporting on the Pacific Islands region for the international media.

Topics

Europe