2014 Lowy Institute Poll and press conference

The tenth annual Lowy Institute Poll, released today, has found that Australians believe China and Japan have equal claims to the title of ‘Australia’s best friend in Asia’. Sentiments towards China have also warmed significantly this year to its equal highest rating of 60° on the Lowy Institute’s ‘thermometer’ of feelings towards other nations.

Despite this increased warmth, nearly half (48%) of the adult Australian population believe that China is likely to become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years (up 7 points), and a majority say the Australian Government allows too much investment from China (56%). A very high 64% of Australians either don’t know or hold no view when asked whether they admire Chinese President Xi Jinping.

‘Australians have very mixed feelings towards China. What’s remarkable about these findings is that one in two Australians think we may be in a military conflict within two decades with our largest trading partner – a country many people today see as our best friend in Asia’, said Dr Michael Fullilove, Executive Director of the Lowy Institute.

The Lowy Institute Poll has found that most Australians appear comfortable with their government spying on other countries – even allied countries. The majority of Australians think it is acceptable to spy on China (65%), Indonesia (62%) and East Timor (60%), but also on the United States (54%) and even New Zealand (51%).

In a striking shift of public opinion, 45% of Australians now see global warming as a ‘serious and pressing problem’, up 5 points since 2013 and 9 points since 2012. In a new question this year, 63% of Australians say the government ‘should take a leadership role on reducing emissions’, while only 28% say ‘it should wait for an international consensus before acting’.

‘After successive polls showed declining concern about climate change between 2006 and 2012, this year’s Poll shows that the trend-line has turned, and Australians’ concern about climate change is now on the rise. Australians also have very strong views on the leadership role government should play in acting on global warming and reducing emissions’, said Lowy Institute Poll Director, Alex Oliver.

In a strong endorsement of the Abbott Government policy of turning back asylum seeker boats, 71% agree that the government should turn back boats when safe to do so. For 59%, offshore processing in places such as Nauru and PNG is supported. However, temporary protection visas are more divisive – 48% agreeing and 49% disagreeing.

Confirming findings from previous Lowy Institute polls, only 60% of Australians, and only 42% of young Australians 18-29 years of age say that ‘democracy is preferable to any other kind of government’. When asked to choose between ‘a good democracy and a strong economy’, only a slight majority of Australians − 53% − choose a ‘good democracy’. When asked their reasons for not preferring democracy, the strongest responses are that ‘democracy is not working because there is no real difference between the policies of the major parties’, and that ‘democracy only serves the interests of a few and not the majority’.

‘For the third year in a row, the Poll reveals the high number of Australians, particularly young Australians, who are ambivalent about democracy. Our new results also dispel the notion that apathy is the main reason for Australians’ ambivalence about our democratic system of government. Neither is the appeal of another, more authoritarian type of system the main driver of their disenchantment’, said Alex Oliver, Director of Polling.

As well as revisiting established questions from previous polls, the 2014 Poll includes new questions on attitudes to foreign investment in particular industry sectors, the objectives of Australia’s aid program, immigration, population size, and views on global political leaders from Barack Obama to Angela Merkel.                                                                                                                                                                           

The full report will be available on the Lowy Institute website on Wednesday 4 June at 12.01 a.m., together with the updated 2014 Lowy Institute Poll Interactive – a data visualisation tool exploring key results from 10 years of Lowy Institute polling.

The 2014 Lowy Institute Poll is based on a nationally representative telephone survey of 1,000 Australian adults between 12 and 27 February 2014. An additional 150 adults aged 18-29 years of age were also surveyed on questions about democracy, threats to Australia’s vital interests, climate change and feelings towards other countries. The Poll’s error margin on the 1000 sample is approximately +/- 3.1%.