China's foreign policy in Afghanistan

In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Dirk van der Kley examines China's policy options in Afghanistan once the NATO-led mission there comes to an end in December 2014.

“China has a stake in Afghanistan’s stability. In particular it does not want it to become a haven for regional terrorist groups”, says van der Kley.  

“But it is highly unlikely Beijing will commit any type of armed force to stabilise operations in Afghanistan.  Instead it will enhance its diplomatic and economic engagement with the country”, he said.

Van der Kley argues that Beijing views economic engagement as its main contribution to stability in Afghanistan. However the scope of its engagement  will depend greatly on the security situation, the views of Chinese companies, as well as requests from the Afghani government. 

Diplomatically China will strengthen its contact with a range of political groups in Afghanistan, including the Taliban, to prevent the country functioning as a haven for Uyghur militants. It will also seek to increase regional cooperation on Afghanistan.

“Whether this approach will achieve China’s aims remains to be seen. But Chinese experts agree that this approach is the best way to play a tough hand”, concludes van der Kley.