Peak China? China’s economic trajectory and implications for its strategic ambitions

China’s remarkable economic rise has long been a key factor in global geopolitical discussions. But how soon and at what height will China’s economy peak? What are the implications for China’s ambitions in the world? 

For years, predictions suggested that China's economic power would surpass that of the United States by the end of this decade. However, recent developments, backed by Lowy analysis, have challenged this assumption. 

In this event in which we unpacked the findings of original Lowy Institute research and explored the concept of ‘Peak China’ with the Lowy Institute’s Lead Economist Roland Rajah, Senior Fellow for East Asia Richard McGregor and Nonresident Fellow Dr Jenny Gordon. 

The event was moderated by Director of Research Hervé Lemahieu. Our panellists discussed the implications of this potential turning point and what it means for China's future prospects, as well as the repercussions it may have for the rest of the world. 

Roland Rajah is Lead Economist at the Lowy Institute and the Director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre. A development economist by background, Roland has extensive experience working across both emerging Asia and the small island developing states of the Pacific. He has previously worked for the Asian Development Bank, Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID), and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Roland is the co-author with Alyssa Leng of the influential Lowy Institute Analysis paper Revising down the rise of China. 

Richard McGregor is Senior Fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute. He is a former Beijing and Washington bureau chief for the Financial Times and the author of numerous books on East Asia including Xi Jinping: The Backlash (2019) and Asia’s Reckoning: China, Japan and the Fate of U.S. Power in the Pacific Century (2017). His 2010 book, The Party, on the inner workings of the Chinese Communist Party, was translated into seven languages and chosen by the Asia Society and Mainichi Shimbun in Japan as their book of the year.  

Jenny Gordon is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute and former Chief Economist at the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Dr Gordon is a member of the Australian International Agricultural Research Centre’s Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Advisory Panel, and the Asian Development Bank Institute’s Advisory Committee. She is also an Honorary Professor at ANU's Centre for Social Research and Methods.