Sea-launched nuclear weapons and Indo-Pacific strategic stability: an international workshop

The nexus of maritime tensions and nuclear weapons is an emerging challenge for peace and security in Indo-Pacific Asia. Despite some countries' efforts to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons, the ballistic missile nuclear submarine (SSBN) is likely to play a substantial role in the region's foreseeable strategic future, amid geopolitical change and wider military modernisation. It is therefore essential to reduce and manage associated risks.

As India and China move ahead with their own indigenous SSBN programs, issues such as command and control, nuclear doctrine, deterrence signalling and force posture will have to be addressed in order to maximise the chances that these platforms will contribute to crisis management rather than crisis instability in the decades ahead. The possibility of Pakistan also putting nuclear-armed vessels to sea adds a new and unpredictable dimension to regional security. The deployment of sea-launched nuclear weapons by Asian powers, along with their strengthening of asymmetrical and conventional capabilities, will help shape the deterrence dynamics of the region and thus whether its future will be prone to peace or conflict.

These were some of the themes discussed at the the Lowy Institute International Security Program's workshop ‘SSBNs and Strategic Stability in the Indo-Pacific’, held in Singapore on May 13 and 14 2014. Participants met to discuss questions about how nuclear weapons affect strategic dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, what lessons the Cold War may offer in terms of ensuring strategic stability, and how to manage the introduction of Chinese and Indian SSBN programs into the region in ways that minimise risks to peace and stability. This closed-door discussion, convened and chaired by Lowy's International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf, involved experts and former security practitioners from China, India, the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Australia, including former First Sea Lord of the Royal Navy, Admiral (Ret.) Sir Mark Stanhope, Major General (Ret.) Gong Xianfu from China, Rear Admiral (Ret.) Raja Menon from India and Professor Peter Dombrowski from the US Naval War College.

The Lowy Institute gratefully acknowledges support from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, with additional support from the Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, in funding this workshop and associated research and outreach.

The workshop agenda and participants list are available for download as PDFs from this page.