Kamala Harris is the less predictable, more enigmatic candidate on US foreign policy

The dramatic elevation of Vice President Kamala Harris to the top of the Democratic Party’s ticket for the US presidency has narrowed the race for the White House into a contest that is too close to call.

While Harris is expected to follow President Joe Biden’s lead on many issues, her approach to foreign policy remains somewhat of a mystery.

In a special feature entitled Harris 1.0: What Kamala Harris’ election would mean for Australia and the world, seven Lowy Institute scholars analyse how Kamala Harris might approach foreign, economic, and defence policymaking as president.

Harris and her team have said little about key issues of international security, trade, China policy, Asia policy, and more. But Lowy Institute experts conclude that the best guide to a Harris presidency is the Biden term that precedes it.

In August, Lowy Institute experts came together in a special companion digital feature to offer their forecasts on what a second Trump presidency would mean for the world.

“A return of Trump to the White House portends far greater disruption to the global role of the United States than a Harris win. But he’s a known commodity. By contrast, Kamala Harris is in many ways more enigmatic and therefore less predictable on US foreign policy,” said Hervé Lemahieu, Director of Research at the Lowy Institute.

However, Australian views of the two candidates are clear. New Lowy Institute polling has revealed Australians’ support for Donald Trump has declined by seven points since Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democrats’ candidate.

The polling reveals almost three-quarters of Australians (73%) say they would prefer Kamala Harris to become president of the United States, while less than one in four (22%) say they would prefer Donald Trump.

Six months ago, when the 2024 Lowy Institute Poll was fielded, 68 per cent of Australians said they would prefer Joe Biden to be re-elected as US president in the forthcoming election, while almost one in three (29%) said they would prefer to see Donald Trump return to the White House.

Read the Harris 1.0 special feature or explore the US election mini-poll.

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