Russia–Ukraine war: Stocktake and forecast

Russia’s war in Ukraine has entered its third year and is seemingly no closer to resolution, either on the battlefield or at the negotiating table. 

The Lowy Institute hosted Mick Ryan and Zoya Sheftalovich in July 2023 for an update on the Ukraine war. Now, with Ukraine’s counter-offensive having fallen short of expectations and Russia maintaining its battlefield resolve, we again hosted these two compelling experts to discuss how the war is evolving. The conversation was hosted by Lowy Institute International Security Program Director Sam Roggeveen, and included questions from the audience. 

Major General (Ret’d) Mick Ryan is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute. His book, War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict, was published in 2022. 

Zoya Sheftalovich is a contributing editor for POLITICO, based in Sydney. She is a regular commentator on the Ukraine war for ABC News 24.