Number of allied nuclear-powered submarines in the Western Pacific to double by 2035

The number of US, UK and Australian nuclear-powered submarines deployable in the Western Pacific will more than double in just over ten years, under the AUKUS partnership, a new Lowy Institute Analysis argues.

The report by Dr Ross Babbage AM, entitled Deterrence and alliance power: Why the AUKUS submarines matter and how they can be delivered, examines the strategic value of the AUKUS partnership and the nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs), and the common concerns raised about their procurement, including cost, complexity of building, maintenance and crewing, and operational benefits.

Dr Babbage argues that AUKUS will deliver a powerful new level of deterrence to those who may threaten Australia.

“Dominance of the maritime domain promises a level of conventional deterrence that is difficult to obtain by other means. It should contribute substantially to preserving peace in the Indo-Pacific for at least a generation,” writes Dr Babbage.

“Moreover, from the mid-2030s, AUKUS should double the number of forward-deployed SSNs in the Western Pacific in the initial ten days of a major crisis.

“Serious doubts about AUKUS have been expressed in Australia, the United States, and Britain. Some have been ill-informed and several have been driven by outdated assumptions. But other concerns are real, and mostly being addressed by remedial action.

“The AUKUS program is certain to face further bumps on the road. But with rapid progress being made, momentum is building and confidence and determination are on the rise.”

Lowy Institute Research Director Hervé Lemahieu said: “There are lively debates underway about the value for money of AUKUS and whether the core promises under the partnership can actually be delivered. Dr Babbage offers a considered and meticulous analysis of why he believes AUKUS will make a material difference to Australia’s defence capabilities within the space of a few years, which is much sooner than most realise.”

Dr Ross Babbage AM is CEO of Strategic Forum Ltd, a not-for-profit organisation committed to fostering high-level discussions on the security challenges confronting Australia and its allies. He is also a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, DC.

KEY FINDINGS

• Significant progress has already been made in the program to deliver advanced nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. The AUKUS partnership with the United States and the United Kingdom is well placed to deliver on its objectives in a reasonable timeframe.
• A largely unrecognised near-term benefit of AUKUS is that Australia will host up to five allied nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) within three years. These jointly crewed submarines will make a significant contribution to joint deterrence and theatre defence.
• By the mid-2030s, the AUKUS partners will have more than doubled the number of forward-deployed allied SSNs that can be operational in the critical first ten days of any Western Pacific crisis or conflict.
• Personnel expansion for the Royal Australian Navy will be one of the greatest challenges for the AUKUS program. Nevertheless, provided that upskilled Australian engineers and technical specialists are supplemented by British and American experts, this task will likely prove manageable.

The Analysis Deterrence and alliance power: Why the AUKUS submarines matter and how they can be delivered is available to read and download at the Lowy Institute website.

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