Tarik Solmaz’s recent article in The Interpreter, Three factors hardening China’s stance on Taiwan, provided an incisive snapshot of three of the factors aggravating Beijing’s aggressive grey zone actions against Taiwan in recent times.
But I’d take issue with one concerning aspect of Solmaz’s overall analysis. His thesis appeared to suggest that Taiwan, through its pursuit of ordinary diplomatic business, was in some way causing the hardening of China’s position. That may not have been his intention, but by picking three geopolitical factors in isolation, without delineating the larger frame of reference, and in the context of naming aggravating factors as causative, it creates the strong suggestion that Taiwan is somehow responsible for the constant harassment and grey zone operations being conducted against it. In other words, it leaves the impression of Taiwan is a troublemaker.
I certainly agree that Taiwan’s steadfast maintenance of its liberal democracy under China’s military and economic coercion, its participation in international organisations, and its ordinary diplomatic pursuit are all aggravating factors in China’s recent shift into intransigence and absolutism. Where I disagree, however, is in the suggestion that these factors are causative.
Neither democratic Taiwan nor authoritarian China is subordinate to the other. This has long been an internationally recognised fact. Taiwan has governed itself independently in a manner very different from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), interacted with the international society, and pursued like-minded partnerships. Taiwan’s presidential election held in January showcased its full-fledged democratic system and its people’s determination to safeguard their way of life. This stands to highlight fundamental differences in core values across the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwan’s pursuit of business as usual cannot possibly be a causative factor in all of these significant increases in China’s national assertiveness.
China coined the mantra “reunification”, as their ultimate political goal aiming to annex Taiwan. China’s expansionist intention is the single most decisive factor in the hardening of its stance on Taiwan. This being the case, democracies have collectively on several occasions reiterated the importance of cross-Strait peace, including via joint military drills such as Balikatan (meaning “shoulder-to-shoulder”) involving Australia, the United States and the Philippines, and US President Joe Biden signing the Supplemental Appropriation Act of 2024 to aid Taiwan through foreign military financing. This has showcased international support for Taiwan in its indefatigable efforts to preserve the peace over the Taiwan Strait, and it is internationally recognised that China is the authoritarian regime with motivations and plots to alter the status quo and jeopardise the security of the Indo-Pacific region.
It is a truism to state that Xi Jinping’s China is a very different regime to the administrations which preceded his. It hardly needs pointing out that China’s stance on many issues has hardened significantly since his accession to power, with the revanchist “Great Chinese Rejuvenation” ideological shift that he and his government have pursued. China’s position has hardened on every single one of its border disputes. The best example is that China has kept escalating regional tension in the South China Sea to pursue its relentless expansionism. And just recently, the CCP saw fit to unilaterally introduce the M503 flight path, imperiously sweeping away a 10 kilometre safety buffer and endangering all other air traffic carriers in the vicinity. Taiwan’s pursuit of business as usual cannot possibly be a causative factor in all of these significant increases in China’s national assertiveness.
China’s infringements do not stop at Taiwan nor the South China Sea. The Cyber Threat Report 2022-2023 issued by the Australian Signals Directorate points out that “Volt Typhoon”, a Chinese state-backed hacking group, is targeting Australia’s critical infrastructure. It’s yet more proof that China has its own agenda to cause such unrest, and that cannot be attributed to other countries.
So, what is crucially missing from the “three factors” put forward by Solmaz that is hardening China’s stance on Taiwan is China’s longstanding and independently taken decision to toughen its stance on just about everything. It is obvious to the international society that China has entered a phase of self-assertion, where it feels that it can unilaterally alter the status quo across a whole range of flashpoint issues in its own favour.
It is vitally important to remember, in any analysis of the cross-Strait relationship, that China’s recent aggressive self-assertion is the single most important factor. To ignore the fact that China is hardening its diplomatic posture overall, solely through its own agency, bypasses the most important truth of the current strategic picture – that Xi’s vision for the future of the People’s Republic of China is the primary, and in many cases, the only causative factor in much of the strategic tension between China and its neighbours, including and especially Taiwan.
