A month after the first report on North Korean troops being deployed to Russia, the United States and South Korea have confirmed that these troops have engaged in combat against Ukraine in Russia’s Kursk region. It is estimated that North Korea contributed 10,000 troops to the 50,000-strong Russian counteroffensive in Kursk, and the North Korean troops wore Russian military uniforms in combat.
North Korea has so far kept its involvement in the Russia-Ukraine War within the purview of its Treaty of Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships with Russia, which it just ratified last week. Per the treaty, North Korea could help Russia defend against military aggression, which explains why its troops have so far joined the Russian troops in Kursk to repel the Ukrainian occupation of Russian territory and not elsewhere such as the battlefront on Ukrainian soil.
While Russia and North Korea have implicitly confirmed North Korean troops are participating in the war, China has maintained a hands-off approach. In late October, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko visited Beijing to meet China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Remarkably, Rudenko’s visit occurred concurrently with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Sun-hui’s visit to Russia. However, China declined to answer any questions about North Korean troops in Russia. China has only said that it has no information regarding North Korean troops.
The United States has tried to get China to restrain North Korea sending troops to Russia, betting that China is also upset about the escalation. But China’s answer has been unchanging, that it favours de-escalation of the situation and supports a political settlement. US President Joe Biden discussed the issue again when he met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Peru in recent days, but again, nothing changed.
China will not be entrapped by North Korean troops activities in Russia, even should the Russia-North Korea joint force not achieve their objectives in battle.
China has not sought to punish North Korea for its involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war. Bilateral trade did decline in the early months of 2024 and in absolute terms compared to 2023, but they eventually rebound to a year-high in October. The trade slump in July was better explained by the floods in North Korea rather than China being upset at North Korea’s decision to sign an alliance treaty with Russia in June.
Despite reports claiming that Beijing was contemplating sending back all the 100,000 North Korean workers in the country in retaliation for Pyongyang improving ties with Moscow, it has not done so. China’s border provinces benefit from the cheap North Korean labourer and sending back North Korean workers en masse would devastate the local economy. China received North Korean workers in October in defiance of sanctions while trade relations are expected to be smooth.
Other recent tensions in bilateral ties, such as North Korea’s prohibition of Chinese movies and TV shows for domestic consumption, or its objection to China’s plan to install telecommunication facilities near the China-North Korea border, are not significant enough to warrant a Chinese punishment. It’s true that China and North Korea have not celebrated the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties with much fanfare, but the toned-down celebration is more likely to emphasise what China has called “steady and long-term” cooperation under “the new circumstances of the new era”. In Peru, Xi warned Biden that China “will not sit idly by” if its security interests on the Korean peninsula are threatened.
China has few reasons to punish North Korea for dispatching troops to Russia. China’s policy toward North Korea has been “no war, no instability, no nukes.” North Korea sending troops does not violate any of the principles, as the war happens far from Northeast Asia. North Korean troops wearing Russian military uniforms demonstrates that Pyongyang’s participation is solely for economic benefits, not to antagonise South Korea or the United States.
Pyongyang demolishing inter-Korean roads and building walls in the Korean Demilitarised Zone are not precursors to war. North Korea floating balloons carrying garbage across the border is not a one-sided provocation either. Its recent launch of a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile, the Hwasong-19, did not violate China’s red line on not testing a nuclear device. Russia can supply North Korea with military technology, but so long as North Korea heeds China’s limit, China will not punish it.
Importantly, China does not have an alliance treaty with Russia and its alliance treaty with North Korea only covers the “Far East.” This means that China will not be entrapped by North Korean troops activities in Russia, even should the Russia-North Korea joint force not achieve their objectives in battle.
And worries about Russia increasing its clout at China’s expense are exaggerated. In 2023, 98% of North Korean trade involved China. China and Russia are not in a rivalry like they were in the Cold War, which led China to see every Russian move as threatening. On the contrary, Russia providing North Korea with essential supplies can take some burden off China.
China’s effort to broker a peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine war gives Beijing an incentive to downplay its ties with North Korea to evade the West’s pressure on it to restrain Pyongyang and to maintain a façade of neutrality. But China-North Korea ties remain intimate as ever.
