US widens lead in Asian power stakes, but loses ground to China on military capability

The 2024 Asia Power Index shows China beating the United States for the first time for its military posture in Asia, an expert assessment of countries’ ability to deploy rapidly and for a sustained period in the event of an interstate conflict in the region. But China remains lodged behind its rival superpower at the top of the table.

The sixth edition of the annual assessment, first published in 2018, evaluates the power of 27 states and territories across Asia, based on 131 indicators across eight thematic measures, including Military Capability and Defence Networks, Economic Capability and Relationships, Diplomatic and Cultural Influence, as well as Resilience and Future Resources.

In 2024, the top five countries for overall power are: the United States, China, India, Japan, and Australia.

The 2024 Index reveals China is neither collapsing nor increasing exponentially but plateauing — with power below that of the United States, but well ahead of any other country in Asia.

Meanwhile, the United States continues to confound pessimists by demonstrating its staying power in the region, buoyed by its economic capabilities and alliance networks.

Despite the picture of resilience in overall US power, the United States has lost ground to China in two areas over the past six years: Military Capability and Economic Relationships.

This year’s Index also shows renewed dynamism in the region, with no less than 11 ranking changes in the table, including India (3rd) and Australia (5th) climbing one place each.

KEY FINDINGS

• China’s plateauing power: China’s power is neither surging nor collapsing. It is plateauing at a level below that of the United States, but still well above any Asian competitors.
• Resilient US power: The United States has buttressed its standing in Asia — though it is losing ground to China on Military Capability.
• India rising slowly: India has overtaken Japan to become the third-ranked power in Asia, but its clout remains below the potential promised by its resources.
• Japan is hardening up: Japan is changing from an economic and cultural powerhouse to one much more active in defence and security cooperation.
• Southeast Asian powers on the rise: Southeast Asia’s heavyweights are getting heavier: Indonesia’s power has grown more than any other Index country since 2018.
• Australia is holding its own: Australia continues to rise up the Asia Power Index, making it into the top five as others falter, but its own power is just holding steady.
• Russia’s dwindling relevance: Russia has slipped down the power rankings to sixth place. Its relevance to Asia is declining as its war on Ukraine saps resources and focus.
• Tripolar diplomacy: While Asia remains a “bipolar” game dominated by two superpowers, when it comes to Diplomatic Influence, power is more widely distributed, and Japan is a leading player.