West must seek to work with Myanmar’s fragmented state

Western governments must acknowledge Myanmar’s fragmented state and work to support vulnerable communities liberated from the military junta’s rule, a new Lowy Institute Analysis argues.

The report by Dr Morten Pedersen, entitled Outrage is not a policy: Coming to terms with Myanmar’s fragmented state, shows Myanmar’s civil war is likely to continue for years, despite armed resistance groups winning important victories to reclaim parts of the densely forested and mountainous borderlands.

Resistance groups are now providing governance and public services to vulnerable communities in liberated areas, but binding these regions together as a single democratic state will be difficult.

Pedersen argues Western countries need to give greater non-military support to the patchwork of political authorities and community organisations that are emerging and may eventually serve as the foundations for a reconstructed Myanmar. 

“Western governments have struggled to respond adequately to the 2021 military coup and resultant civil war,” Pedersen said.

“The combination of sanctions on the regime and humanitarian aid to the people is a reasonable starting point, but neither approach is likely to significantly influence the course of the conflict.

“It is understandable that governments are reluctant to provide military assistance to the resistance, which would risk drawing the West and China into a proxy war in Myanmar.

“Still, it is hard not to conclude that there is also a lack of imagination in some policy circles, or at least insufficient will to try new things.

“International assistance for ‘parallel state-building’ in areas outside military control offers a bridge between military aid (which is too risky) and traditional humanitarian aid (which is too apolitical).

“The longer Myanmar remains mired in warfare, the more crucial these plural governance systems will become to the welfare of millions of people…with lasting implications for the nature of state-building in the country.”

KEY FINDINGS

• Myanmar’s civil war has entered a crucial phase. While the junta remains firmly ensconced in the centre, a series of stunning victories by its opponents has severely diminished the reach of the military regime into the borderlands.
• After struggling for the past three years to respond effectively to the conflict, Western governments now have a chance to restore their relevance to Myanmar’s future development by supporting this parallel state-building. This will require increased non-military engagement with a broad tapestry of resistance groups and local community organisations, not just the National Unity Government.
• With the military state retreating, anti-junta forces have started building state-like structures and delivering public services in “liberated areas” where they are in effect governing millions of people.

The Analysis Outrage is not a policy: Coming to terms with Myanmar’s fragmented state is available to read and download at the Lowy Institute website.

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Andrew Griffits
Head of Media and Communications
media@lowyinstitute.org