What Trump 2.0 would mean for Australia and the world

President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the US presidential race has rebalanced the contest for the moment. But Donald Trump is still better positioned for a knife-edge victory than he was ahead of his shock win as a political outsider in 2016.

Compared to a Kamala Harris victory, a return of Trump to the White House also portends far greater disruption to the global role of the United States.

In the special feature, entitled Trump 2.0: What Donald Trump’s return would mean for Australia and the world, ten Lowy Institute scholars analyse how Donald Trump might approach foreign, economic, and defence policymaking in a second term.

The Lowy Institute’s Director of Research Hervé Lemahieu said the Institute applied its wide and deep lens on international policy to scope out the potential global implications of a second Trump presidency.

Expert assessments vary depending on the region and issues covered, but all authors agree the world has changed since January 2021 when Trump was last in power, and the stakes are higher.

“The Russian threat has returned to Europe, the conflict in Gaza threatens to escalate into a wider Middle East war, China is inching closer to realising a post-American order in Asia, and it is making hay globally by claiming leadership of the disparate but increasingly influential Global South,” he said.

“On the eve of the Democratic National Convention, it would be easy to think the momentum is pushing Kamala Harris towards the White House. But the political landscape remains volatile.”

“In all the excitement about the race, we can’t lose sight of the fact that the biggest upheaval will be the policy implications if Donald Trump is re-elected.”

“Whether the United States continues to champion allies, values, and norms under a re-elected Donald Trump has never been more consequential for friends and foes alike.”

Read the full series of essays on the Lowy Institute website.

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