Hundreds of thousands of attendees will see Beijing make a powerful statement about its military and industrial might this week as Zhuhai Jinwan Airport hosts the 15th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition.
China will become only the second country to boast two stealth fighters in its inventory, alongside its chief rival, the United States.
A bread-and-butter event for aviation geeks the world over, the equipment China is unveiling at this year’s air show offers important insights into the pace of its military modernisation and strategic intentions. As, indeed, does the equipment it chooses not to display.
The first big-ticket item is the J-35A. This aircraft is China’s second stealth fighter, following the J-20. Once this platform is brought into service, China will become only the second country to boast two stealth fighters in its inventory, alongside its chief rival, the United States. China also officially unveiled the world’s first two-seat stealth fighter, the J-20S, further signalling its intent to equal and perhaps surpass the United States in this area. In addition to air combat, with the extra capabilities provided by a second crew member, this platform will be able to team up with unmanned vehicles, conduct electronic jamming and command and control at the tactical level.
Another J-35 variant will likely be brought into service as a future carrier-borne fighter – mock-ups of the aircraft have been spotted aboard the PLA Navy’s first carrier, Liaoning and its latest ship, Fujian. But while the carrier-borne J-35 is still an item for the future, the Zhuhai air show has also seen the unveiling of the new J-15T, already operational on China's carriers. Chinese investment into carrier aircraft is significant. This capability will greatly enhance China's counter-intervention mission – that is, preventing adversaries from operating within China's near seas in the event of a Taiwan contingency or other major military operation. It will bolster China’s ability to conduct air operations farther from its shores, and thereby hold US or other nations’ naval ships at risk if they attempt operations within the so-called “second island chain”.
China’s bomber forces also appear largely geared towards denying easy use of the sea to potential adversaries and striking bases in the Indo-Pacific, rather than being geared to strike the US (or Australian) mainland. But speaking of bombers, there is a notable no-show at Zhuhai – China’s future stealth bomber, the H-20. It is, apparently, not ready for its grand debut. It seems this aircraft will be similar to the USAF’s B-2 Spirit, have a range between 8,500km and 10,000km and a payload of at least ten tonnes. Advances in Chinese air-to-air refuelling capability could extend the range of this platform to cover even longer distances. It is likely that this bomber will be nuclear-capable, and may also be armed with a variety of ballistic missiles including the KF-21, an air-launched version of China’s so-called “carrier-killer” DF-21D.
It is possible that China’s experience with H-20 will mirror America’s with the B-2. The Advanced Technology Bomber program that produced the B-2 began in earnest in 1979, with the B-2 publicly unveiled in 1988 and making its maiden flight in 1989. If history repeats, then we might see the H-20 on the tarmac next year, and in the air in 2026. Then again, if history repeats as farce, this timeline might be a deal longer. Indeed, some analysts have speculated that China would have unveiled the H-20 sooner but for America’s announcement of its new stealth bomber, the B-21 Raider.
This year’s air show offers important insights into the pace of China's military modernisation and strategic intentions.
Finally, an important force multiplier for China is missing from Zhuhai – the Y-20B. Based on China’s recent Y-20 transport plane, this variant boasts much more powerful engines, and is possibly a multi-role tanker-transport (MRTT). If this is true, and China is able to produce this platform at scale (as they have done with the Y-20), this would be an important development. Air-to-air refuelling capability is critical for any country wishing to conduct sustained operations over meaningful distances, and project power abroad. There is a reason the United States operates more than 450 tankers and MRTTs.
What does all of this mean for Australia? Firstly, that China is focused on Taiwan and keeping US forces at bay. Direct threats to Australia are less apparent, particularly as the H-20 is yet to be unveiled.
But that does not mean such direct threats will not develop, or even that China needs to strike Australian territory to harm Australian interests. Through all of the flashy aerobatics and cutting-edge technology, Australians should be cognisant of the point that, fundamentally, these are machines designed for war. And they are growing in their sophistication.
