If Indonesia’s 200 million-plus voters thought they would get a breather after February's presidential election, next month’s regional elections have other plans. Governor offices, mayoral seats and other positions all the way down to the district level are up for grabs on 27 November.
With the usual post-presidential coalescing of former opposition parties behind soon-to-be-inaugurated Prabowo Subianto and his enormous Onward Indonesia Coalition, known as KIM in Bahasa Indonesia, and a shock legal ruling lowering the minimum seats required to field candidates, races for the November elections are heating up.
Pair that with the “empty box” feature, in which voters can register their rejection of all candidates, and these races should reveal the shape of things to come.
Jakarta, as always, holds the major attention. Often seen as a precursor to future presidential campaigns, the capital, in function if not law, is the one to watch.
Ridwan Kamil, former mayor of Bandung and governor of West Java, certainly has the name-recognition edge over his opponents. Kamil has long been discussed as a potential pick for future president. His name featured prominently among the swirl of vice-president choices for Prabowo before last year’s legal machinations.
Kamil is seen very much as an outsider, an intruder even, in the capital’s politics.
Still, it’s been a bumpy start. Despite securing the backing of the enormous coalition of parties supporting Prabowo, which now includes the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), Jakarta’s largest, Kamil is seen very much as an outsider, an intruder even, in the capital’s politics. Back in Bandung, Kamil happily played up the rivalry between the West Java capital and Jakarta, but this history has bitten him among proud Jakartans.
The shadow of Anies Baswedan haunts Kamil. Anies, the former governor of Jakarta, was briefly expected to run with the backing of Megawati Sukarnoputri’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) before that plan was ditched for an in-house candidate. Anies was earlier seen as a “dark horse” in the presidential campaign, and Jakarta was one of only a few provinces in which Anies came exceptionally close – Prabowo only beat him in the province by less than 40,000 votes. A lingering view in the capital that Kamil is a candidate of cynical politicking by the Prabowo coalition runs deep. Kamil’s candidacy, the conversation in Jakarta goes, is not the best choice for Jakarta rather the best choice for firming up a monster coalition to control the entire country.
That PDI-P didn’t, in the end, back Anies is perhaps understandable. The party was fresh from the ground-shaking fall-out with President Joko Widodo, himself a former governor of Jakarta. Hell-bent on never losing “control” of a lawmaker again, PDI-P has thrown its weight behind Pramono Anung, a longtime party stalwart and former Cabinet Secretary under Widodo. A great choice for the party, but a tricky one for the electorate. Despite a long career in the party, national parliament and the cabinet, Pramono has far less name recognition than Kamil and is struggling to carve out an identity among voters burnt out by elections. He’s had a boost with running-mate Rano Karno, a former actor turned politico with a stint including Governor of Banten.
Running very much third-fiddle is Dharma Pongrekun, an independent candidate and former three-star police general. He’s perhaps most famous for spruiking a series of bizarre conspiracy theories, particularly around vaccines and the Covid-19 response. The reaction to his candidacy has been of the “an independent is good, just not this kind” variety, and polling support has rarely pushed above 5%.
If Pongrekun was hoping to improve those numbers during last Sunday night’s televised debate, he failed. While the two front-runners discussed policy options, Pongrekun used the opportunity to declare future pandemics would likely be “part of foreign infiltration using health issues to erode our sovereignty.”
Polling has Kamil leading, but pollster Yunarto Wijaya of Charta Politika has warned off discounting the Pramono Agung-Rano Karno ticket calling the second-place holder a – you guessed it – “dark horse”.
National and regional politics have become particularly male-dominated in recent years. But voters in East Java have the choice between three women.
Back in Kamil’s old West Java stopping ground, the effects of legal changes have been particularly evident. Voters have four options – or the “empty box”. The National Awakening Party split from an agreement with the PDI-P and both parties are running candidates, Acep Adang Ruhiat-Gitalis Dwi Natarina and Jeje Wiradinata-Ronal Surapradja respectively. These two pairings will face off against a joint ticket between Surya Paloh’s NasDem and PKS featuring Ahmad Syaikhu for governor and former president BJ Habibie’s son Ilham Habibie as vice-governor. Dedi Mulyadi and running mate Erwan Setiawan are running with the powerful backing of Gerindra, Prabowo Subianto’s party, and Golkar.
Surveys show that in the wide West Java field, it is Dedi Mulyadi and Erwan Setiawan’s for the taking. The pair sat on 65.9% in polling conducted last month by Poltracking, with Ahmad Syaikhu-Ilham Habibie a distance second on just above 11%.
Next door in Central Java, PDI-P is running former commander of the armed forces Andika Perkasa alongside former mayor of the capital, Semarang, Hendrar Prihadi. They’ll face off against the Gerindra ticket featuring former head of police in the province Ahmad Luthfi and Taj Yasin Maimoen, running again for vice governor of the province. Surveys have held the PDI-P ticket in the lead, no doubt a relief to the party in its stomping ground.
East Java is a particularly intriguing race given its demographic outlier. National and regional politics have become particularly male-dominated in recent years. But voters in East Java have the choice between three women. Incumbent Khofifah Indar Parawansa is from PKB and is well ahead, but PDI-P’s Tri Rismaharini, a former minister in Widodo’s cabinet and one of the most high-profile women lawmakers in the country, hasn’t counted herself out yet. Luluk Nur Hamidah, running for PKB, is trailing a distant third.
Both Khofifah and Risma have been talked about as potential future national or larger province leaders. It is a shame to see neither them nor other women feature top of the ticket in other prominent races. The participation of women in Indonesian politics has taken a sideline to talk of dynasty-building and legal maneuvering, but after an exceptionally blokey presidential election giving way to regional elections with virtually the same make-up, it’s a question that deserves equal focus.
