To the victor goes the spoils. Donald Trump has used this old expression before, and, after winning back the US presidency, he’ll rely on the same sentiment. Trump has pledged to repay his opponents, bristling at the “big steal” that he claims cost him office in 2020 and the criminal convictions since. No concerns about age, conspiracy, prejudice or competency have kept a majority of Americans from wanting him to win again.
What to make of the result? Not so much for America, but for America in the world?
I’ve asked my Lowy Institute colleagues Susannah Patton, Meg Keen and Richard McGregor for a first reaction. And also Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor with The Economist, who the Lowy Institute is lucky enough to be hosting for a week in Australia. Let’s start with him.
Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor, The Economist
“With Donald Trump headed back to the White House, America’s foreign policy, the world economy and international politics are all headed for a period of serious tumult. The repercussions will be felt even before Trump’s inauguration on January 20th.
Authority will ebb away from Joe Biden as his presidency enters a lame duck period. Countries will begin to act in anticipation of what is coming. Israel, for instance, might step up its strikes on Iran, confident that it will have Trump’s backing. European leaders will be forced to sharply increase defence spending if they want to keep Ukraine armed in the event that Trump cuts aid to the country. America’s major trading partners in Europe and Asia will gird themselves for the massive tariffs that Trump has promised.
In recent years, the international system has come under growing strain, with increasing levels of conflict, countries crossing what were once red lines and countries hedging against their old alliances. Trump’s return means that process will now be on steroids.”
Susannah Patton, Director, Southeast Asia Program
“Most of Southeast Asia will be pragmatic about Trump’s return. Many already see the US as a more distant partner and are unlikely to anticipate a major impact on their bilateral ties with the United States.
Like others, their views of Trump will hinge on management of China and trade. Uncontrolled confrontation with China which would raise the risk of conflict, or intensifying trade protectionism would hurt US standing in this region.
“Long term, the nakedly transactional and unpredictable Trump will damage perceptions about US reliability and staying power in the region, a soft-power victory for China.”
The Philippines, which has staked the most on the US alliance under the Biden administration, has the most to lose. A failure to back up Manila if it is tested further by Beijing in the South China Sea would put great pressure on the alliance.
Long term, the nakedly transactional and unpredictable Trump will damage perceptions about US reliability and staying power in the region, a soft-power victory for China.”
Meg Keen, Senior Fellow, Pacific Islands Program
“In the Pacific Islands, many will be feeling yet another blow to global climate ambition and action. Trump’s campaign cry of “drill baby drill” for a US economy that is the second-largest greenhouse gas emitter hits hard for small islands facing existential threats.
His scepticism about the value of multilateral agencies that help advance regional development will also be worrying, for example the UNFCCC, WHO and multilateral banks.
In the North Pacific, where there are American associated states, the compact agreements worth nearly $900 million over the next 20 years are locked in. But if tensions with China ramp up, this region will feel the heat because of strategically important American military facilities.
For the rest of the Pacific, bilateral relations are modest but growing, and it is unlikely Trump will alter course. The savings would be minor, and the additional reach into this strategically important region is increasingly important.”
Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for East Asia
“As with the Australian government, the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea will just have to suck it up with Donald Trump. No one is looking forward to it.
China will be most worried about Trump’s unpredictability. The old idea that Trump is transactional, and would be willing to do deals, has lost its allure in China. Beijing knows that he might offer some deals, but they have no trust he will stick to them. In this respect, Trump is not unlike Beijing itself – a deal is just a waystation onto further negotiations, rather than an end point of any kind. The big wild card remains Taiwan – both in what China does to pressure the island, and how Trump might respond.
Japan and South Korea each expect to be brow-beaten into paying even larger sums for the US troops stationed on their soil. But there could be a silver lining for them if Trump’s unpredictability manages to keep Beijing off balance. Neither country can handle China on its own, and they need America, no matter who is in the White House.”
