South China Sea
Moving beyond the grey zone: The case for ICAD
There are early signs that a potentially significant change is underway in how Indo-Pacific leaders perceive, describe, and understand the nature of China’s acts in the region…
Overcoming the deliberate legal ambiguity adopted by China’s coast guard
While laws should provide clarity and transparency, China’s recent orders regarding maritime jurisdiction appear to be deliberately based on ambiguity and uncertainty. This has…
Deterring China’s military violence against Australians
Repeating an aggressive action four times shows intent. In February 2022, a Chinese warship directed a dangerous laser at an Australian Defence Force aircraft. In June 2022, a…
Unpacking China’s propaganda narratives against the Philippines
The Second Thomas Shoal, within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, is the most dangerous flashpoint in the South China Sea.China has ratcheted up pressure at sea to the…
Not in the same boat? Perceptions of the Australia-Philippines security partnership
The 2024 Lowy Institute Poll suggests for most Australians, the Philippines does not figure highly as a potential security partner. Only 2% of the respondents chose the…
A code of conduct won’t solve the South China Sea crisis
Negotiations over a “code of conduct” (COC) in the South China Sea between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China waxed and waned for two decades. Last July,…
“Squad” goals: Consolidating the new quadrilateral partnership
A few days ago, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin hosted his counterparts from three allied nations – Japan, Australia and, crucially, the Philippines – in Hawaii, also home to…
Balikatan 2024: Philippines and friends send a clear signal to China
The Philippines and the United States have kicked off their most expansive and consequential joint military drills yet. This year’s edition of Balikatan (shoulder-to-shoulder)…
ASEAN and the military applications of AI
ASEAN's new Guide on AI Governance and Ethics, released earlier this year, marks a milestone as the region's first coordinated effort to manage the risks of artificial…
The Philippines seeks out old friends and new
The failure of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to secure a substantive joint statement to address South China Sea disputes at last year’s leaders’ summit and the more…